After witnessing record-breaking temperatures and historic hurricanes, what does Summer 2025 hold? Delve into the analysis of past summers and predictions for the next, guided by the latest data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Before we look at how we got to this forecast, let’s rewind.
We are coming off a very warm Spring – March was the 6th warmest for american records and the 3rd warmest globally. APril ended with some places in green gettin 200% their normal monthly rainfall. And on the temperature map areas in orange finishing the month 1-2 degrees fahrenheit above average.
Plus if we review recent history from last summer – it gives us a gauge for what is in the summer outlook ahead.
- Summer 2024 was the fourth-hottest summer on record, with an average temperature of 73.
- July 2024 was particularly warm, ranking as the 11th warmest July in the 130-year record,
- So many places had record heat– California and New Hampshire, recorded their warmest July on record last summer.
- Cities like Hartford Caribou and Dulles Airport all had their hottest summers on record.
- Michigan experienced its fifth-wettest summer on record.
- While Alabama and Mississippi had their driest August on record.
The Extreme Weather Last Summer left a mark on history
- Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic,
- A derecho event on July 15 spawned 32 tornadoes in the Chicago area, breaking the local record for the most tornadoes in a single day.
- The Park Fire in California, burned approximately 401,000 acres, destroying over 560 structures.
Now back to the weather ahead and the outlook for Summer 2025
The overall big picture trends come from ocean patterns – Earlier this year, we experienced a brief La Niña event, which is now over. As of April 2025, the tropical Pacific has returned to ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning we’re not currently under the influence of either El Niño or La Niña. This neutral phase is expected to continue through the summer months. Now without a strong ENSO signal, other regional climate drivers take over, such as:
- Atlantic sea surface temperatures
- Position of the jet stream
- Subtropical ridge strength
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for higher chances of above-normal temperatures along most of the East Coast this summer — from Florida to Maine.
Expect it to be hotter than normal. This pattern is consistent with recent years, where urban heat island effects and longer-term warming trends amplify summer heat in cities like:
- Washington, D.C.
- Philadelphia
- Boston
Cities from New York City all the way to Phoenix are more prone to urban heat island amplification under stagnant neutral conditions. Without strong jet stream shifts, heat domes can park for days or weeks.
- The East Coast can see frequent thunderstorms, but totals vary based on storm track.
- The Midwest and Great Plains may alternate between dry stretches and heavy thunderstorm outbreaks.
- Southwest and Pacific Northwest could see below-normal rainfall, with increased wildfire risk.
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for May through July 2025 indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the country. The western U.S., Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Northeast are expected to experience warmer-than-average conditions.
Turning to the Precipitation Outlook, expect more variation. The western U.S., from the Pacific Coast through the Great Plains, is forecast to have below-normal precipitation levels. The central and eastern Gulf Coast, extending up the central Atlantic coast into the Northeast, may see above-normal precipitation.
Its important to know this to:
- ENSO-neutral conditions typically do not suppress hurricane development like El Niño does.
- Neutral years tend to have average to above-average hurricane activity. Many notable hurricanes like Katrina in 2005 have occurred in neutral or weak ENSO years.
Remember this outlook is done in advance for May June and July – stay tuned to the local forecast for updates.
